DA WEF JAN 2014

     100 % DA WEF JAN 2014 LOOKS REAL

Month Index  DA
Jul-13   235   92.28 %
Aug-13 237   93.94%
Sep- 13 238   95.59
Oct-13  241   97.32
Nov-13 243   99.12
Dec-12  239   100.56


All-India CPI-IW for December, 2013 declined by 4 points and pegged at 239

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) October 2013

According to a press release issued by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & Employment the All-India CPI-IW for October, 2013 rose by 3 points and pegged at 241 (two hundred and forty one). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 1.26 per cent between September and October compared with 0.93 per cent between the same two months a year ago. The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 2.53 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Wheat Atta, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Milk (Cow & Buffalo), Pure Ghee, Onion, Vegetable items, Tea Readymade, Electricity Charges, etc.. are responsible for the rise in index. However, this was compensated to some extent by Groundnut Oil, Ginger, Petrol, putting downward pressure on the index. The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 11.06 per cent for October, 2013 as compared to 10.70 per cent for the previous month and 9.60 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 15.02 per cent against 13.36 per cent of the previous month and 9.91 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. At centre level, Bhavnagar recorded the highest increase of 9 points each followed by Ahmedabad, Labac Silchar and Kodarma (8 points each) and Vadodara and Surat (7 point each). Among others, 6 points rise was registered in 8 centres, 5 points in 10 centres, 4 points in 8 centres, 3 points in 9 centres, 2 points in 10 centres and 1 point in 11 centres. On the contrary, Belgaum and Chhindwada centres reported a decline of 3 points each followed by Mercara (2 points) and Salem, Hubli Dharwar and Puducherry (1 point each). Rest of the 15 centres’ indices remained stationary. The indices of 39 centres are above All-India Index and other 38 centres’ indices are below national average. The next index of CPI-IW for the month of November, 2013 will be released on Tuesday, 31 December, 2013. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) September 2013

According to a press release issued by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & Employment the All-India CPI-IW for September, 2013 rose by 1 points and pegged at 238 (two hundred and thirty eight). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.42 per cent between August and September compared with 0.47 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Miscellaneous group contributing 0.44 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Arhar Dal, Goat Meat, Dairy Milk, Milk (Cow & Buffalo), Pure Ghee, Snack Saltish, Tea Leaves, Onion, Electricity Charges, Firewood, College Fee, Secondary School Fee, Petrol, Bus Fare, Tailoring Charges etc. are responsible for the rise in index. However, this was compensated to some extent by Wheat, Groundnut Oil, Mustard Oil, Poultry, Ginger, Vegetables and Fruit items, putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 10.70 per cent for September, 2013 as compared to 10.75 per cent for the previous month and 9.14 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 13.36 per cent against 13.91 per cent of the previous month and 11.00 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Labac Sichar recorded the highest increase of 9 points each followed by Varanasi and Vishakhapattnam (7 points each) and Bhilwara, Tripura and Darjeeling (6 points each). Among others, 5 points rise was registered in 3 centres, 4 points in 2 centres, 3 points in 7 centres, 2 points in 14 centres and 1 point in 15 centres. On the contrary, Goa reported a decline of 8 points followed by Godavarikhani (7 points), Bhavnagar (5 points) and Nagpur and Ahmedabad (4 points each). Among others 3 point decline was observed in 2 centres 1 point in 6 centres. Rest of the 15 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 39 centres are above All-India Index and other 38 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Ajmer centre remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of October, 2013 will be released on Friday, 29 November, 2013. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

As per the recent publication of AICPIN value, DA has reached the height of 93.94 % at present. During the coming four months, if the AICPIN value increases by 1 point, there is a possibility of DA reaching the 100 % mark. Likewise, if the average becomes 2 point, there is a chance of reaching 101 % as DA. During the ensuing four months, based on the value calculation of AICPIN, it would be possible to calculate DA accurately. Still, there is maximum possibility of increase of DA by 11 %

EXPECTED DA FROM JAN 2014

IF AICPIN RISE ONE POINTS IN THE BALANCE

 MONTHS OF AICPIN…

Jun-13	231	2648	220.67	104.91	90.62	90
Jul-13	235	2671	222.58	106.82	92.28
Aug-13	237	2694	224.50	108.74	93.93
Sep-13	238	2717	226.42	110.66	95.59
Oct-13	239	2739	228.25	112.49	97.17
Nov-13	240	2761	230.08	114.32	98.76
Dec-13	241	2783	231.92	116.16	100.34	100 % DA

IF AICPIN RISE TWO POINTS IN THE BALANCE

MONTHS OF AICPIN…

Jun-13	231	2648	220.67	104.91	90.62	90
Jul-13	235	2671	222.58	106.82	92.28
Aug-13	237	2694	224.50	108.74	93.93
Sep-13	239	2718	226.50	110.74	95.66
Oct-13	241	2742	228.50	112.74	97.39
Nov-13	243	2767	230.58	114.82	99.19
Dec-13	245	2793	232.75	116.99	101.06	101 Expected DA

IF AICPIN RISE THREE POINTS IN THE BALANCE

 MONTHS OF AICPIN…

Jun-13	231	2648	220.67	104.91	90.62	90
Jul-13	235	2671	222.58	106.82	92.28
Aug-13	237	2694	224.50	108.74	93.93
Sep-13	240	2719	226.58	110.82	95.73
Oct-13	243	2745	228.75	112.99	97.60
Nov-13	246	2773	231.08	115.32	99.62
Dec-13	249	2803	233.58	117.82	101.78	101 Expected DA

Expected DA From Jan 2014-Possibility Of Increase Of DA By 10- 11 %

AICPIN for the month of August 2013

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW)-August, 2013

The All-India CPI-IW for August, 2013 rose by 2 points and pegged at 237 (two hundred and thirty Seven)

Source : Labour Bureau Portal

                             AICPIN for the month of July 2013

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) July 2013

According to a press release issued today by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & Employment the All-India CPI-IW for July, 2013 rose by 4 points and pegged at 235 (two hundred and thirty five). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 1.73 per cent between June and July compared with 1.92 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 1.99 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Milk, Onions, Chillies Green, Potato, Tomato & other Vegetables. Electricity Charges, Firewood, Bus Fare, Petrol, etc. are responsible for the rise in index. However, this was compensated to some extent by Groundnut Oil, Primary and secondary School Fees putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 10.85 per cent for July, 2013 as compared to 11.63 per cent for the previous month and 9.84 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 14.10 per cent against 14.86 per cent of the previous month and 11.27 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Giridih recorded the highest increase of 16 points each followed by Kodarma (11 points), Durgapur (10 points) and Jharia, Surat, Ghaziabad and Godavarikhani (9 points each). Among others, 8 points rise was registered in 7 centres, 7 points in 6 centres, 6 points in 10 centres, 5 points in 6 centres, 4 points in 7 centres, 3 points in 8 centres, 2 points in 6 centres, and 1 point in five centres. On the contrary, Faridabad reported a decline of 6 points followed by Madurai (5 points), Coonoor (3 points), Tiruchirapally (2 points) and 5 other centres by 1 point each. Rest of the 7 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 38 centres are above All-India Index and other 38 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Jabalpur and Ghaziabad centre remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of August, 2013 will be released on Monday, 30 September, 2013. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

This 3 point increase in June, 13 AICPIN has also confirmed minimum 7% increase in Dearness Allowance in Jan-2014.  Next two months’ AICPIN will give exact figure of expected DA. 

  This time calculation says that if no any increase occurred in next 6 months in AICPIN the 7% increase in expected DA of Jan-2014 is confirm. 

Increase/ Decrease Index	Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or will be announced
2	May-13	228	2625	218.75	88.97%	88%
3	Jun-13	231	2648	220.67	90.62%	90%
0	Jul-13	231	2667	222.25	91.99%	91%
0	Aug-13	231	2684	223.67	93.22%	93%
0	Sep-13	231	2700	225.00	94.37%	94%
0	Oct-13	231	2714	226.17	95.38%	95%
0	Nov-13	231	2727	227.25	96.31%	96%
0	Dec-13	231	2739	228.25	97.18%	97%
	Jan-14	Expected DA from Jan-2014				97%

Now the above table and growth trends in AICPIN and inflation also indicates 100% DA from Jan-2014 and 25% increase in allowance.