Expected DA from January, 2013 will be 80% or 81%

 

DA from January, 2013 will be

 80%

 

CPI-IW index in DEC2012 increased by one point to 219 ,

thus DA wef 01 Jan works out to be 80.83(80%)

Expected DA from January, 2013 will be

 80% or 81% after October, 2012

 CPI-IW index

Expectation of future Dearness Allowance from January, 2013 on the basis of
2 points jump in CPI-IW for the month of October, 2012
giving 50-50 expectation for DA  80% or 81%  means an increase of
8% or 9% as the Dearness Allowance has been announced 72%
from July, 2013.  All India Consumer Price Index Number
 [http://labourbureau.nic.in/indtab.html] for Industrial Workers
 (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for October, 2012 showing
 increase in 1 point and stood at 217 
(Two hundred and seventeen).
The different expectations of DA from January, 2013
are illustrated below:- 

Expectation-1
If it is expected only 1 point increase in this index for coming two months
 the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will
confirm 80% in January, 2013:

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	218	2490	207.50	79.25%
Dec-12	219	2512	209.33	80.83%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Expectation-2

If  2 point increase in this index for any of coming two month and 1 point increase 
 in other, the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee also will 
not exceed 80% in January, 2013:-

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	219	2491	207.58	79.32%
Dec-12	220	2514	209.50	80.98%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	80%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	218	2490	207.50	79.25%
Dec-12	220	2513	209.42	80.91%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Expectation - 3

If we expect 2 point increase in this index for coming two month,
 the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee
will be approximatily 81% in January, 2013:-

Dearness Allowance = 
(Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	81%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	219	2491	207.58	79.32%
Dec-12	221	2515	209.58	81.05%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Expectation - 4

In this last expectation we check that in which situation the increase
 in DA from Jan-2013 will cross 9%.   For that an unexpected
 jump of 10 months for next month or 7 point jump of coming
both months (Nov & Dec) will give 10% increase and this
expectation is very much unexpected.  See below :

Dearness Allowance =
(Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	82%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	224	2496	208.00	79.68%
Dec-12	230	2529	210.75	82.06%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA
Jul-12	212	2414	201.17	73.78%	72%
Aug-12	214	2434	202.83	75.22%	82%
Sep-12	215	2452	204.33	76.51%
Oct-12	217	2471	205.92	77.88%
Nov-12	227	2499	208.25	79.90%
Dec-12	227	2529	210.75	82.06%
Jan-13	Expected DA from January 2013

Hence, it is also clear that expectation of increase in DA from January, 2013 will not cross 9%.